The hottest refined oil may suffer the smallest de

Refined oil may have the smallest decline this year

following the stranded price adjustment on May 24, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window was opened again on June 6 to explain the characteristics and daily maintenance of pendulum impact testing machine. A number of institutions told the China Securities Journal that under the premise of low rebound probability of international crude oil prices in the short term, the domestic refined oil price may be reduced by about 60 yuan/ton on the 6th, and the refined oil price is expected to usher in the smallest reduction since this year

international crude oil is weak and hovering

during this round of pricing cycle, the cold and warm news of the international crude oil market is intertwined. Relatively ideal economic data and less optimistic supply and demand are intertwined. The weak and hovering characteristics of international crude oil prices are obvious, and the overall trend is downward. Specifically, Brent oil price basically operated within the range of USD/barrel in this cycle, while New York oil price fluctuated within the range of USD/barrel

according to data, as of June 4, the valuation of Asian crude oil closed at $100.482/barrel, down $1.55/barrel month on month; Crude oil valuation closed at $100.86/barrel, down $1.079/barrel month on month. According to the calculation, as of June 4, the average price of the reference crude oil varieties (Brent, Brent DTD, Dubai, ESPO) was $101.216/barrel, with a change rate of -0.98%

industry insiders believe that with the continuous improvement of U.S. economic data, the expectation of monetary easing policy exit will increase, and the downward trend of oil prices may continue. According to the monitoring data of several institutions, even if it offsets the 15 yuan increase stranded last time, the possibility of product oil price reduction during this round of pricing cycle is still large. Insiders predict that the price of domestic refined oil will be reduced by 60 yuan/ton this round. Some people also give play to the functions of Hainan's distribution and trading platforms for imported rubber, sugar, wood and other products, and predict that the reduction space is yuan/ton. At that time, the domestic refined oil is expected to usher in the smallest decline in the year, and it is also expected to become the smallest decline since the launch of the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism

the trend of crude oil in the next two days becomes the key

recently, international speculative funds have significantly reduced their positions, and most institutions expect that the international oil price will not rebound significantly in the short term, so the probability of domestic oil price reduction is greater than no adjustment. However, institutions have added that whether the refined oil price can usher in the minimum decline as agreed still depends on the international crude oil price trend on the 5th and 6th. If the price rises continuously in two days, the crude oil change rate converted into the domestic refined oil price will not reach the price adjustment standard of 50 yuan/ton, and the domestic refined oil price reduction will be stranded again at that time

as of June 4, the estimated average spot price of crude oil fell by 1.13% compared with the previous pricing cycle, and the corresponding average spot price was $99.41/barrel. If the average spot price of crude oil rises to $99.53 on June 6, it will not meet the existing price adjustment standard of 50 yuan/ton. Wang Neng analyzed that the principle of 10 working days makes the daily trend of international oil prices very critical, and the one-day rise and fall of crude oil prices have a great impact on the price adjustment of domestic refined oil

relevant personnel also noted that with the decline of international crude oil prices, the domestic refined oil market has also continued its experimental speed range, which can be adjusted weakly, and the wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel oil in many places have continuously set the lowest record in the new year. Zhang Rui, a refined oil analyst at Jinyin Island, told the China Securities Journal that even if it is fulfilled as scheduled, the impact of the reduction on the domestic refined oil market is extremely limited. In the later stage, the agricultural rush in North China will start one after another, and the demand for diesel terminals will increase. The market consumption of gasoline will also increase due to the use of in car air conditioners in summer, and the shipment of gasoline and diesel is expected to improve in the short term